The shift of power from west to east, as the US-dominated international order becomes multipolar, is evident. But the nature of the emerging system is far from clear. Will it be competitive, based on the assertion of national power, or co-operative, framed by international rules?

Robert Kagan, in his new book The End of Dreams and the Return of History, foresees the former. He expects the political values of the various powers to determine their alliances. Thus Russia and China could form an axis of autocracies, united by their dislike of political liberalism. They would face an axis of democracies, consisting of the US, Europe, Japan and perhaps India.