It is almost exactly a decade since Albert Edwards, the Dresdner Kleinwort strategist, first predicted a sharp fall in the US stock market. In that time Mr Edwards’ firm has lost a Benson, gained a Dresdner, and gained then lost a Wasserstein, but the strategist has retained his bearish views.

In September 1996, Mr Edwards was forecasting that the Dow would drop below 5,000. That never happened, even in the 2000-02 bear market, and it is now hovering around 11,000. But he is unabashed. His latest prediction is that, if the US slips into recession, the Dow could fall 40 per cent, which would take the average down to 6,600.