In an unsettling development that may speak volumes about the true level of confidence underlying the “green shoots” economic recovery story, many professional traders have begun to doubt the veracity of the US government’s economic reports. Recently, most new releases of economic data have been accompanied by negative revisions of prior reports; and that is causing many to question whether the public is receiving the total, unvarnished truth. Conspiracy theorists abound on Wall Street and the current theory holds that a desire to unlock consumer spending is causing the government intentionally to skew the numbers. If that belief were to spread, the very difficult task of restoring confidence would be made much harder. I can already hear some of you scoffing at the whole idea. After all, the government does not lie, does it?

Rumblings of this sort began to surface a few years ago when traders questioned economic data from Beijing. After investigating government claims of astounding growth, some academics concluded that reported growth in Chinese gross domestic product might have been inflated by up to 200 per cent. Belief that Chinese officials doctor the data persists and not just among traders. The Paris-based International Energy Agency recently released a report, Another Chinese Riddle: How Reliable Are GDP Figures?, in which the intergovernmental organisation cited research that China’s first-quarter GDP growth, announced as 6.1 per cent was most likely flat to negative. As a result of such reports, public trust is eroding, and not just in China.