President Barack Obama will face a series of challenges in the Middle East demanding urgent attention: an Iraq that could still unravel, an Iran approaching the nuclear threshold, a faltering Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and weak governments in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories challenged by strong militant Islamist groups. He will also discover that time is working against him. But with changes in policy, the incoming president can capitalise on new opportunities rather than be overwhelmed by old realities in this critical and troubled region.

For six years, US policy in the Middle East has been dominated by Iraq. This need not and should not continue. The Obama administration will be able gradually to reduce the number of US troops in Iraq and shift responsibility to Iraqi forces. The drawdown will have to be executed deliberately so as not to risk undoing recent progress.