“Blackstone in shock earnings forecast miss!” Given the sensitivity of the alternative investment firm’s numbers to credit conditions, equity markets and deal flow, it’s a wonder analysts even get close to the final outcome. For the full year, the highest earnings estimate for Blackstone is three times the lowest. Even for Goldman Sachs, that black box par excellence, the highest 2008 forecast is just 34 per cent above the lowest.

Reporting quarterly numbers goes with the territory of being listed – as does the indignity of a 35 per cent fall in the price of Blackstone’s units since its initial public offering last summer. But any individual set of three-month figures provides little real guidance on the future. Private equity’s success relies heavily on long lock-ups, dry powder and the concomitant ability to move quickly when market conditions turn favourable. Hence, with banks locking their vaults and markets turning south, Blackstone is marking down existing investments and struggling to make new ones.