Financial Times FT.com

Asian bond markets

Published: May 9 2008 09:06 | Last updated: May 9 2008 20:52

That didn’t take long. Barely three months after emerging markets began doling out food subsidies and slashing import tariffs, the damage is writ large in local bond markets. Some of the biggest casualties are in countries with the most precarious fiscal positions. In the case of Asia, that means the Philippines and Indonesia.

Indonesia’s 10-year bond prices have fallen by 14 per cent in the past two months. The archipelago is to spend $20bn, or nearly one-fifth of this year’s budget, on shielding its citizens from higher energy costs alone – and that effort assumes an unlikely $100-a-barrel oil price. Rising food and energy prices are also driving inflation higher. Consumer prices rose 9 per cent year on year in April, prompting the central bank to increase interest rates this week.

Investors are also punishing the Philippines for backtracking on budget pledges. The country, which has spent years consolidating its fiscal position and was on course for a balanced budget this year, is the biggest rice importer in the world and is home to some of the region’s poorest people. Mindful of political fallout from past food crises, the government was quick to intervene. The calculations vary, depending on how much it ends up paying for rice, but the fiscal deficit this financial year is now likely to come in at about 1 per cent of gross domestic product. Consumer price inflation, meantime, is running ahead of target at 8.3 per cent year on year in April.

Deteriorating fiscal positions make capital raising more likely. Doing so from a position of weakness and eroded credibility means governments would have to pay handsomely – as witnessed by yields on existing bonds. Yet there are few alternatives. Indonesia is considering a rise in subsidised oil prices but dramatic changes are unlikely. Ironically, the countries with the worst fiscal positions are also those with upcoming elections. Appealing to voters and putative foreign investors simultaneously is, alas, a tall order.

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