Something does not add up. There is a strengthening consensus that the US is in or near recession. The turmoil in credit and housing markets is well known. That is starting to creep into the real economy, visible through the weakening labour market and the increasingly vulnerable consumer. The American Bankers Association says, for example, that borrowers are the furthest behind on their debt payments in 15 years. Even Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, mentioned the “R” word as a possibility.

Yet, after the recent rally, the S&P 500 is only 12.5 per cent off its October peak. Once you strip out rodeo-riding financial stocks, the index is down less than 10 per cent. That is not even an official “correction”, let alone a bear market.