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An M&S profit warning

Published: July 2 2008 09:38 | Last updated: July 2 2008 20:07

The timing could hardly be more embarrassing. A week before Sir Stuart Rose asks Marks and Spencer’s shareholders to ratify the board’s decision to appoint him executive chairman, he announces a profits warning. Sir Stuart, of course, prefers to spin the warning as a “third dab at the brakes”, but as far as investors are concerned, M&S is already upside down in the ditch. On the back of a 5.3 per cent decline in like-for-like sales over the 13 weeks to the end of June, the retailer’s shares fell 25 per cent yesterday to 240p. For those with memories of the 400p Philip Green was wafting around back in 2004, the Rose patter was especially galling.

Sir Stuart risks losing credibility by blaming changing market conditions for what are arguably rather M&S-specific problems that call into question much of the recent recovery story. The food business, for example, needs to innovate if it is to retain its relevance to the company’s increasingly cost-conscious consumers. After taking credit for hoiking M&S’s pre-tax profits over the £1bn mark last year, he must now shoulder the blame as they tumble back to a consensus forecast of £700m-£750m. His promise to protect the dividend looks likely to be a stretch without slashing capital expenditure. Taking forecast earnings per share of 27p in 2009/10, last year’s macho 22.5p payout is barely covered.

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