Just weeks ago the world of bling and posh frocks clung to hopes for a soft landing. A crash now looks more likely. Sales at Richemont, owner of Cartier, rose 16 per cent year on year in constant currency terms in the half-year to September 30, but fell 2 per cent in October. Burberry’s like-for-like sales also turned negative last month. Bulgari has issued a profit warning, the first among luxury brands, while Saks, Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom, top-end US department stores,have all seen double-digit sales declines.

Bain & Co now forecasts that luxury goods sales will fall by as much as 7 per cent next year. Some worst-case forecasts see 2009 sales in developed markets reverting to 2005-06 levels.