The consensus behind a tax-funded National Health Service could break down unless the service increases its productivity and individuals take more responsibility for their lifestyles, according to Sir Derek Wanless, whose 2002 report for the government was pivotal in securing the current big increases in NHS spending.

Those large increases – an extra £43bn a year between 2002 and next year – have brought significant improvements, Sir Derek is to say on Tuesday in a follow-up report commissioned by the King’s Fund health think-tank and seen by the Financial Times.