The slowdown begins. An unexpectedly steep fall in the German Ifo business-climate index on Tuesday – to its lowest level since February 2006 – shows that the best part of the upswing in Europe’s biggest economy is over, with consequences all over the 13-nation eurozone.

With the euro last week reaching record levels against the dollar and, more crucially, on a trade-weighted index, the latest news seems unsurprising. But it is not clear whether the currency’s recent appreciation – the result of the global credit squeeze and fears about the US economy – is yet to blame.