Despite the severity of the downturn, central and eastern Europe have seen no sovereign default. But anxiety is rising over Ukraine’s efforts to restructure a $500m eurobond maturing on September 30 from Naftogaz, the national gas company that also operates the export pipeline from Russia.

Naftogaz has no explicit state guarantee, but many investors see it as quasi-sovereign. Its finances have been stretched since Russia began cranking up gas prices to Ukraine towards world levels. Naftogaz has to sell the gas at subsidised, often lower, prices to domestic consumers. Meanwhile, it must pay Russia’s Gazprom monthly for imports to avoid another shutoff that could affect western Europe.