Financial Times FT.com

Asian markets

Published: August 16 2007 12:30 | Last updated: August 16 2007 20:02

Contagion isn’t dead yet. There have been signs, in recent years, that emerging markets’ tendency to act in tandem with developed markets had weakened. Stronger national balance sheets, more export partners and deeper capital markets all played their part. This view is now under pressure. Emerging Asian equities fell 6 per cent in dollar terms on Thursday, according to MSCI. Korea’s local currency KOSPI index dropped 7 per cent, while Indonesia’s stock market has suffered its worst weekly fall since September 1998. No market, not even perennially euphoric China, has proved immune.

Direct exposure to the subprime crisis is not the big concern. South Korea’s banks, for example, have announced a mere $567m of aggregate exposure to credit derivatives. Instead, the fear is that the credit crunch will affect US growth prospects and, thus, demand for Asian goods. Emerging Asia’s dependence on exports has actually risen in the past decade. In Thailand, for example, the ratio of exports to gross domestic product is 74 per cent. And when it comes to final demand, nearly two-thirds of exports still end up in the US, European Union and Japan.

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