The official temperature gauge of the British economy – consumer price inflation – will rise to 5 per cent or higher in September, according to most economists’ forecasts, illustrating at a stroke why the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is widely expected to let another month go by without cutting interest rates, despite a worrying growth slowdown.

On Wednesday, the MPC begins its two-day meeting to consider rates policy. Since its last deliberations in August, official statistics have revealed that the economy did not grow at all in the three months to June, lending for new house purchases have fallen to levels below even that of the early 1990s housing crash and employment prospects in manufacturing have fallen for the fifth consecutive month.