Green shoots? Forget them. Even the feared double-dip downturn may be too much to hope for, according to one business leader. “There could be a quadruple dip in my opinion,” said Peter Hargreaves, chief executive of Hargreaves Lansdown, the independent financial adviser.

He does not expect real recovery for another 18 months. By a quadruple dip he means “little false dawns” in which things such as an end to destocking by manufacturers or an increase in discretionary consumer purchases are mistaken for a genuine upturn.