How does a canary become a swallow? Not a riddle from a Christmas cracker, but the question facing the boards of every media company in the UK as they peer into the impenetrable gloom of 2009.

In 2008, their sector has been the caged bird whose early signs of suffocation heralded tribulation for the wider economy. But industry leaders know that in previous recessions the media – especially in the cyclical advertising-driven subsectors such as newspapers, broadcasting and directories – has also proved to be the harbinger of warmer financial climes.