London’s Square Mile is expected to suffer job losses next year for the first time since 2001. But the signs are that the axe will fall less heavily and with more precision than during the downturn that followed the bursting of the technology bubble.

During the bear market of 2000-2003, a freeze in mergers and takeovers had a savage knock-on effect for the investment banks that earn fees on the back of corporate activity. The sector may have been in good shape financially, but the wider slowdown led to thousands of jobs being shed.