It appears that we have our “V”. The start of the month on Thursday brought with it the usual slew of updates on the health of the world economy, and they appeared to be in agreement. The rebound from the freefall in output that followed the Lehman bankruptcy is now over. Growth is levelling out at a rate that implies very gradual expansion, but also implies continued bad unemployment.

In the US, the Institute of Supply Managers’ survey of manufacturers showed a slight drop in activity, from 52.9 to 52.6, compared with the forecast of 54. The ISM is set so that numbers above 50 indicate expansion and numbers below show contraction.