In the US presidential race, the odds are stacked high against John McCain. He represents an unpopular party and is associated with a failed president. The country wants a change. Aside from this, which is already bad enough, Mr McCain’s tactical calculations are far more difficult than the ones confronting his rival Barack Obama. In short, Mr McCain deserves some sympathy: he is by no means the principal author of his predicament. Lately, though, it has seemed that he is doing what he can to worsen it.

The unpopularity of the current administration is so great, and excitement at the prospect of an Obama presidency so strong, that Mr Obama can move to the centre – even to the extent of offending much of the party’s base – and still expect to turn out loyalists in his support. Mr McCain commands no such enthusiasm among Republicans. Many support him reluctantly and suspiciously; and Hillary Clinton is not there to arouse their passion. If he moves too much to the centre, apathy in the party could cost him votes in November. But if he stays where he placed himself to win the nomination – intent on appealing to the base – he will lose centrists to Mr Obama, and with them the election.