Is the US still the world’s consumer of last resort? There have been hopes that the rest of the world was growing less dependent on the appetite of American consumers. But the current world stock rally, and the sharp reaction to last Friday’s disappointing US gross domestic product figures for the third quarter, suggest otherwise.
“Consumer discretionary” stocks – companies most dependent on the ebbs and flows of consumer expenditure – have led all others in recent weeks. According to the indices kept by Morgan Stanley Capital International, this sector has gained 6.1 per cent in the past month. Since the market hit a trough in mid-July, the consumer discretionary rise has been spectacular – 19.1 per cent. For the world outside the US, MSCI shows that the rebound in the sector has been almost identical – at about 19.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the world index as a whole is up only 11.8 per cent over the same period.

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