British businesses hoping to escape recession at home might, until recently, have plausibly considered Asia a relatively safe haven from the global downturn. Until late last summer, companies would have looked smart if they had discreetly shifted resources to the one part of the world where exports were still flourishing and talk of recession seemed far-fetched. As recently as last autumn, the Asian Development Bank and others were projecting growth for this year of 7 per cent or above.

Those rosy forecasts proved flawed in two main respects. First, they misjudged the severity of the downturn in the west, as the credit crisis spread to the real economy. Second, they underestimated the strength of the links that continue to bind Asia to the rest of the world. True, Asia was no longer as dependent on global financial flows as it had been in the run-up to its own crisis in 1997-98. But it had replaced that with dependence on western demand for its manufactured products, making it even more vulnerable to an external shock.