It’s weird to be an American abroad during this election, full of niche characters transformed into front-runners – you miss the texture of it. Speaking to my father the other day – I wanted to make sure he wasn’t lonely since my mother was off stumping for Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire – he observed that my 37-year-old brother and most of his friends were all for Barack Obama. “It’s generational,” he said. “There is a real split because of age.”

That explains what happened in Iowa, he announced (most media outlets announced it too) and it also explains New Hampshire – where Obama won with the under-30s and Clinton with the over-45s (there happened to be more of them) – and, to an extent, Nevada. Whether the same thing happens on Tsunami Tuesday in 22 different states remains to be seen but the smart money says yes. And, of course, if Obama and the Republican candidate John McCain win their nominations, there will be no getting away from it: the first is literally almost half the age of the second. You can feel the newspaper analysis pieces coming on.