“The crisis will pass at a tangent to Turkey. We will overcome the crisis with the minimum damage.” This is what Recep Tayyip Erdogan has continually asserted since the collapse of Lehman Brothers brought the full force of the credit crunch to emerging markets – to the fury of economists and businessmen who view his attitude as dangerous insouciance.

The prime minister’s first statement has been proved wrong. For the first time in decades, Turkey has to deal with an economic upset that is not of its own making. And far from being at a tangent, its performance has closely followed global trends – with a slump in manufacturing, surge in unemployment and, more recently, a market rally and signs of confidence returning.