When Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve chairman, and Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, went to leaders of Congress on September 18 to ask for a $700bn bail-out fund, Mr Bernanke warned what would happen if Congress did not act.

The stock market would fall another 15 per cent, he said. Unemployment would rise to 8 per cent. Two of the big automakers would go bankrupt and the US would face a severe recession that would extend long into 2009.