Economists Edward Prescott and Finn Kydland won the Nobel Prize for demonstrating that expectations matter when it comes to taxes. The larger a tax increase a family expects, for example, the less that family will save. Changing tax laws or monetary policy for short-term purposes can backfire in the long run.

But what exactly can the American family expect after the 2004 election and a year of guns and butter? Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has said he will raise taxes, just as the campaigning Mr Clinton did. And though Republicans are supposed to be the no-tax-hike party, Mr Bush too may raise taxes. After all, that is what other Republicans - even tax cutters such as Ronald Reagan - did when confronted with unforeseen deficits.