The only certainty about the oil price is the inability of forecasters to predict it. Ask a New York futures trader what the long-term oil price is and the current answer will be $54 a barrel for 2011. Analysis by Goldman Sachs suggests that European oil sector equity valuations discount a longer-term forward Brent crude price of $30. Integrated oil companies, however, are still using prices of $20-$25 to assess investment projects.

Faced with such confusion, investors are taking a very short-term view. Citigroup highlights the close correlation this year between European sector performance and daily movements in one-month forward Brent crude prices. With the industry returning cash, investors, understandably, are focusing on near-term cash flows. The macroeconomic picture for the oil market looks bullish for the latter half of the year. On recent trends, this suggests further sector upside.