The European Union does not have a happy history with referendums. When Ségolène Royal, the French Socialists' presidential candidate, recently proposed a referendum on the European constitution in 2009, did she unwittingly sound the death knell for the project?

I do not believe so. In fact, I would think there is a reasonable chance that the EU may end up with a constitutional treaty before the end of the decade. The good news is that we are no longer living in the black-and-white world of a year ago, when we faced a straight choice between the old draft, rejected by the French and Dutch electorates, or nothing at all.