Given the experience of the past couple of years, we should be cautious about consensus among economists. The current wisdom about Scotland is that recovery from recession will be slow and that it must become more export-orientated, reversing a period in which the nation turned inwards and relied on services – especially financial services – rather than manufacturing for its growth.
Perhaps it will happen that way. There are accumulating threats from lower domestic consumption growth, higher household savings, a looming squeeze on public spending and possibly higher taxes as well. One of the striking things about the past year, though, has been the resilience of Scotland’s financial services sector, which had grown rapidly over the preceding decade.
