Crowded trains ‘to leave 130,000 standing’

As many as 130,000 commuters could be forced to stand on overcrowded trains each morning within seven years as the number of workers travelling into London grows.

With an extra 600,000 jobs predicted in London over the next decade and thousands of houses planned for the south-east, the trend for City workers to commute from farther afield is expected to continue.

But their journeys are set to become more unpleasant, according to Network Rail figures in a paper from Passenger Focus, the government-funded rail consumer watchdog.

An estimated 70,000 passengers, or 15 per cent of all people travelling, had to stand on London-bound commuter services in the morning peak period in 2004, the latest date for which figures are available. The evening rush is slightly less congested with about 30,000 people failing to get a seat.

Without significant extra capacity, by 2014 those numbers will climb to 130,000 in the mornings and 67,000 in the evenings, when commuting times are more spread out.

One Network Rail consultation paper on the south-west mainline warns that passengers to London could have to stand from as far away as Southampton Central, a trip of more than one hour, by 2016.

Passenger anger about conditions is already evident: commuters on First Great Western trains between Bath and Bristol last month boarded with fake tickets saying “Class: Cattle Truck” to protest against overcrowding.

A leading Department for Transport civil servant also came under criticism recently for saying that passengers should not expect a seat in the morning rush hour.

Jane Cobell of Passenger Focus said substantial long-term investment was needed to provide longer and more frequent trains.

The Department for Transport said a rail strategy, due out in the summer, would give details of “how and where extra capacity can be created” to try to avoid the projected overcrowding. “We are already increasing capacity on Britain’s busiest rail routes and this remains one of the government’s long-term priorities,” it says.

But many transport experts believe overcrowding is inevitable, given the increase in commuting into London over the past decade and the projections for continued growth.

Stephen Glaister, professor of transport and infrastructure at Imperial College London, said providing seats for everyone during the morning peak would cost “several arms and several legs”. “The only way that money would be raised is through passenger fares and it’s just too expensive,” he said. “The passengers would never go for it.”