Might the Federal Reserve be taking too many chances on prices? On Wednesday, it is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 2 per cent, and avoid any signal that rate rises are imminent, while indicating some increased concern about inflation.

Economists see three big risks to the strategy of not moving rates up quickly unless challenged by a further rise in inflation expectations. First, the Fed may be wrong to assume that oil prices will soon level out, as implied by futures prices.