Trump’s well-earned trouncing in Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s electorate deserves a vote of thanks. It is too early to declare that the Republican tide has turned — or that Donald Trump’s weaknesses are finally being exposed. They should always have been obvious. But Mr Trump’s defeat to Ted Cruz offers a glimmer of hope that the electorate may finally be awakening to his flaws.

It would take an improbable series of results in the coming weeks for Mr Cruz to overturn Mr Trump’s delegate lead. Even then, a Cruz nomination would offer Republicans no greater hope of regaining the White House. But Mr Trump is a preposterous candidate. The longer this fissiparous Republican primary goes on, the more voters see what a President Trump would stand for. It is not a pretty sight.

As ever, Mr Trump is happily supplying the evidence himself. In the past fortnight his stream of gaffes has become a torrent. By unfavourably contrasting the looks of his wife, Melania Trump, to those of Heidi Cruz, his opponent’s spouse, Mr Trump provoked women to turn out against him in even greater numbers. It also gave Mr Cruz, no Mr Nice Guy, the chance to humanise his message.

Likewise, Mr Trump’s assertion — promptly withdrawn — that women who undergo abortions should be punished sparked outrage even from the most militant opponents of abortion. It added to the impression that Mr Trump is making things up as he goes along. The same applies to his advice that Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear deterrents — a comment that elicited unusual rebukes from Tokyo and Seoul. Then he threatened that a Trump-led US would walk away from Nato. And so on.

It is quite possible that Mr Trump will shake off these doubts and go on to win the more important primary that will take place in New York state later this month. A large chunk of the Republican electorate is impervious to Mr Trump’s general election weaknesses. By voting for him, they intend to send a stark message to the Republican establishment.

It is also still likely that Mr Trump will head into the Republican convention in July with the largest share of delegates behind him. But the result in Wisconsin exposed two of Mr Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities. First, Mr Cruz’s campaign is light years ahead of Mr Trump in terms of organisation. This could make a big difference as the contest turns increasingly to a ground game where the ability to garner more delegates will be decisive. The race is turning into a logistical war of attrition that will accentuate Mr Cruz’s strengths.

Second, the US media have scented blood. Stung by criticism they have provided Mr Trump with too much free airtime — about $2bn worth according to one estimate — the television networks are keen to make amends. Mr Trump’s celebrity appeal still attracts lots of eyeballs. But TV executives are discovering that his downfall could also make for compelling viewing. Megyn Kelly, the Fox News anchor whom Mr Trump has repeatedly denigrated, has seen her ratings soar. Having lived by the sword, Mr Trump may also die by it.

That, at least, is the hope among Mr Trump’s opponents. The reality is still likely to be messy. In all probability, Republicans will be unable to avoid a contested convention in July.

When Mr Trump burst on to the scene almost a year ago, conventional wisdom dismissed his early poll numbers as a passing fad. It went on far longer than anyone expected. A majority of Republicans continue to oppose Mr Trump’s nomination. It is not too late for others to follow suit.