Yasuo Fukuda’s Liberal Democratic party faces a strong possibility of defeat in a crucial Japanese by-election this weekend that could prompt rebellious forces within the ruling camp to try to oust the prime minister from the party leadership.
Polls suggest that the LDP could lose in Saturday’s by-election in Yamaguchi, western Japan, where the ruling party’s candidate is trailing the opposition Democratic Party of Japan candidate by a hefty margin.
A loss in that election, the first direct test of public opinion since Mr Fukuda was crowned LDP head last September, could further damage the prime minister’s leadership credentials. Public support for the 71-year-old leader has faltered as he has struggled to get legislation past an upper house controlled by the opposition.
Mr Fukuda has also inherited a number of problems from the previous administration, most poisonous of which is a scandal over lost pension records.
When Mr Fukuda came to office in September, his popularity rating briefly hit 60 per cent. According to some polls, percentage support for his cabinet has dropped to the mid-20s, at or below the level at which Shinzo Abe, his predecessor, felt unable to continue.
Political analysts say further pressure could mount on Mr Fukuda if, as expected, he uses his party’s two-thirds majority to reinstate a tax on petrol.
That could push down his popularity ratings below 20 per cent – a situation that would become more difficult still if the opposition carried out its threat to pass a non-binding censure motion in the upper house.
Takao Toshikawa, editor of Inside Line, said that the LDP candidate was trailing in Yamaguchi. Some of the LDP’s traditional supporters were expressing their intention to vote for the opposition, he said.
Mr Toshikawa said that, in the worst-case scenario, this could trigger a move within his own party to replace him. However, any challenger to Mr Fukuda would face the same problems that are dragging him down.
Foreign diplomats believe it is unlikely the LDP will ditch Mr Fukuda before he hosts the Toyako Group of Eight summit in July. One said he expected a political rebellion within the LDP to gather force after summer, possibly provoking a leadership battle in September.
Mr Fukuda can, theoretically, remain as prime minister until September 2009, by which time he must dissolve the more powerful lower house of parliament.
There was also support among Japan’s bureaucrats for the view that Mr Fukuda could hang on. “I am convinced that he will stay at least until Toyako,” one official said.
“The LDP, a party of patriots, does not want Japan to appear incapable of hosting the G8 summit.”
Gerry Curtis, a Japan expert at Columbia University, said: “I don’t think the election is going to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. The party is not going to dump him yet.”
