Financial Times FT.com

Saudis search for inflation scapegoat

By Roula Khalaf, Middle East Editor

Published: January 11 2008 02:00 | Last updated: January 11 2008 02:00

George W. Bush is widely blamed in the Arab world for creating political crises. But in the Gulf the US president is at risk of also taking the heat for the spike in inflation as ordinary people focus their grievances on the impact of a weak dollar.

In Saudi Arabia, which Mr Bush visits next week, internet chat rooms - where debate over political and religious issues usually rages - are now seething with popular frustrations over inflation.

"Even raising salaries is not a solution - we need goods to be subsidised," says a message on one prominent site. "And we urgently need to delink the riyal from the dollar to make it stronger and better."

In a country that enjoyed zero inflation for more than a decade, a rise in prices of a few percentage points - the highest level, of more than 5 per cent, was reached in October - has caused an uproar, especially at a time when the government is flush with liquidity on the back of high oil prices.

With rent and food prices soaring, Saudis are putting increased pressure on the government to share the benefits of the oil boom and compensate for the price rises. They are also questioning the commitment to the dollar peg when its weakness has raised the cost of non-US imports and forced Riyadh to follow the US Federal Reserve and lower interest rates, adding to inflationary pressures.

But while speculation that the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority will eventually have to devalue the currency has intensified, the authorities have made clear they have no intention of delinking the riyal from the dollar, a political decision that could strain relations with their US ally.

"There's more talk about inflation than about the king on internet chat rooms and it's all based on a lack of confidence in the government," says Abdelaziz al-Qassim, a political analyst in Riyadh. "And people ask why are we linked to the dollar, is society benefiting from this or is the government doing it for the sake of America?"

John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Saudi British Bank, argues that a revaluation would reduce the country's oil revenues - accounting for 90 per cent of government income - in riyal terms and the value of its mostly dollar-denominated foreign assets. The causes of inflation, moreover, are largely domestic, owing to bottlenecks, particularly in the housing market, he says.

But facing rising calls for action King Abdullah has sought to contain spending and focus it on capital expenditures - the 2008 budget projects a spending increase of only 7 per cent. He has also ordered a rise in subsidies on rice and baby milk. On Monday he told economic officials to "protect citizens' living standards and purchasing power" as they push for economic growth.

Although Middle Eastern governments like to blame domestic troubles on outside factors, Riyadh is seeking to deflect perceptions that the dollar is behind inflationary pressures. Saud al-Feisal, the foreign minister, contained talk of the weak dollar's impact at November's Opec summit, when Venezuela and Iran pressed for oil to be priced in a different currency.

"If the Saudis allow this issue to be externalised then they would have to bow to pressure for devaluation or de-pegging," says one analyst who asked not to be named. "But the peg is a political issue and the authorities are not willing to do it when the dollar is at its weakest. It could drive it further down and it wouldn't be well received in the US."

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