Dick Cheney, US vice-president, made a surprise visit to Baghdad on Monday as he kicked off an extensive tour of the Middle East in which he is expected to urge Saudi Arabia to increase oil production and step up pressure on Iran to rein in its nuclear programme.
He will also push for progress in the Middle East peace process, which has made little headway in spite of President George W. Bush’s high-profile tour of the region in January and a series of visits by Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state.
Analysts say the hope is that Mr Cheney’s experience and contacts in the region can produce a breakthrough even as the Bush administration’s influence appears to be fading. “Cheney . . . has a relationship with this region going back administrations and decades – a relationship that Bush doesn’t really have,” says Michael Rubin at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.
Mr Bush’s decision to send the vice-president to the region also demonstrates that Mr Cheney remains a trusted and influential figure within the administration after months of speculation that his power was waning.
Arguably the most pressing item on his agenda will be his bid to persuade Opec, the oil cartel, to rein in prices by boosting output. The trip comes amid mounting fears over the impact of soaring prices on the US economy after oil hit a record $111 a barrel on Thursday.
“Our economy has weakened and part of the reason is because of higher oil prices,” Dana Perino, White House press secretary, said last week. “We think that more supply would help.”
Mr Bush spent two evenings with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia during his January trip. But his appeals for increased oil output have been ignored, a possible signal of waning US influence in the region. Mr Rubin at the AEI expects Mr Cheney to argue it is in Saudi Arabia’s interest to help the US avoid a protracted downturn because oil producers are overestimating Asian countries’ ability to meet any decline in US demand.
Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says Mr Cheney is also likely to warn the Saudis that high oil prices are fuelling political pressure for the US to reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern output.
In the wake of Opec’s rebuffs of US requests for more oil production, the administration is downplaying Mr Cheney’s interest in raising the issue. But a senior administration official briefing ahead of the trip said the vice-president was likely to discuss the causes of the oil price rise and would have “quite a bit of one-on-one time with King Abdullah”.
On Iran, the vice-president is expected to urge countries in the region to do more to isolate Tehran diplomatically and economically. He reiterated his tough stance on the issue in a speech at the Heritage Foundation in Washington last week.
“Given all we know about the Iranian regime’s hatred of America, its vow to destroy Israel and its ongoing efforts to develop the technology that could be used for a nuclear weapon, that is a danger every one of us must take seriously,” he said.
The trip comes at a time of renewed interest in policy towards Iran after a senior US military commander resigned last week because of perceived differences with the White House over the issue. Admiral William Fallon was widely considered a dovish voice on Iran and his departure sparked speculation that hawkish figures such as Mr Cheney were regaining the upper hand over the issue.
The White House has denied forcing out Adm Fallon and insists that it remains committed to ending Iran’s nuclear activities through diplomatic pressure.
The administration official said that Iraq and Afghanistan would be discussed “in just about all the stops”. Indicating that the US may be looking to Turkey as part of its drive to find more troops for Nato’s operations in Afghanistan, he added that there was “an awful lot” to discuss in Ankara ahead of a Nato summit in Bucharest next month.
At a press conference last week, Mr Bush also said that Mr Cheney would seek “to reassure people [that the] US is committed to a vision of peace in the Middle East”. But expectations of progress towards an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal are very low at a time when attention is focused on the risk of a further escalation in violence in the Gaza Strip.
