It used to be the art prize that was guaranteed to scandalise the public – but the only surprising part of this year’s Turner prize shortlist, announced on Tuesday, is that it is more likely than not to produce a woman winner.

Only three women – Rachel Whiteread, Gillian Wearing and Tomma Abts – have won the £25,000 ($49,000) prize in its 24-year history, but this year’s shortlist of four artists includes three women, two of whom were born outside the UK.