Keen anticipation and a certain foreboding are greeting France’s six-month presidency of the European Union, which starts Tuesday. This is Nicolas Sarkozy’s moment, the hot seat he has been eager to occupy since he won the French presidential election in May 2007. It is his chance to erase once and for all the embarrassment of French voters’ rejection of the EU constitutional treaty in 2005. He will try to persuade Europeans that a fresh, creative spirit in France has replaced the introversion of Jacques Chirac’s final years in power.
But the ground has shifted since June 12, when Ireland voted No in a referendum on the EU’s Lisbon treaty, successor to the old constitutional treaty. The long list of ambitious tasks that France had set for itself, in immigration, energy, climate change, defence, agriculture, social policy, relations with the EU’s Mediterranean neighbours, relations with Ukraine and more, looks at risk of over-burdening a presidency that must overcome the crisis sparked by the Irish vote.
To find a way out of this impasse requires patience and skill. A definitive answer may not even be possible until a summit of EU leaders scheduled for December in Brussels. In coming months it will be important for Mr Sarkozy to build a consensus among the 27 member-states on how to proceed. He must base that consensus on a proper understanding of why the Irish rejected Lisbon, not on reckless calls for Dublin to be pressured and isolated.
In foreign policy and in the domestic arena, Mr Sarkozy has already shown himself over the past year to be one of nature’s deal-makers. He relishes solving difficult political problems and he refuses to be defeatist. These are admirable qualities and grounds for hoping he can broker a deal on the Lisbon treaty crisis. But his irritation with José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, over fisheries policy and his attacks on Peter Mandelson, EU trade commissioner, do not augur well. A successful EU presidency needs a constructive relationship with the Commission.
Another area where Mr Sarkozy needs to work his magic is climate change. Unless the 27 reach a political agreement by December on the Commission’s plans for cutting carbon emissions and increasing use of renewable energy, the European Parliament will not convert the package into law before its dissolution ahead of next June’s elections. This would damage the EU’s negotiating position at the December 2009 world climate change conference in Copenhagen. Mr Sarkozy faces a tall order. A deal on this and the treaty would allow him to claim a success.
