The deflationists have it. All year long, the debate has raged over whether the world faces a greater risk from resurgent inflation or from a deflation to match Japan in the 1990s. The sudden fall in commodity prices has, for now, convinced the market that we need not worry about inflation.

That is reflected in a swing in inflation expectations, as reflected by the market for inflation-linked bonds. In the US, that market now implies that inflation will average 2.16 per cent over the next 10 years. That is the lowest since 2003.