The British economy began the long haul out of its last recession in the second quarter of 1992, after two full years of negative growth. The timing coincided precisely with my appointment as director-general of the CBI employers’ body, although I fear the recovery was a case of post, rather than propter, that particular hoc. We are now moving steadily back into the mire. We have it on the impeccable authority of the governor of the Bank of England that a “painful adjustment” is on the way.

This cycle has been unusually long, so most of our current political and corporate panjandrums were in lowly positions last time we were in this degree of economic difficulty. Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, was then shadowing Michael Heseltine at the since-rebranded Department of Trade and Industry. His new heir presumptive, David Miliband, was a humble thinker in a tank. David Cameron, the opposition Conservative party leader, languished in a Conservative research department writing briefs defending the party. Of those now in the distressed Scottish banks, Fred Goodwin was liquidating BCCI – experience his shareholders at Royal Bank of Scotland must hope he will not soon need again – while Andy Hornby, chief executive of HBOS, was doing something obscure in cement.