Iran’s muscle-flexing arrest of 15 British sailors and their release after 13 days of captivity has created a perception of victory in Iran that may embolden those who favour tactical retaliations in other international issues.
The country adopted low-profile and rhetorical responses to months of intense international pressure over its nuclear programme at the United Nations security council and the arrest of five Iranian officials in northern Iraq in January.
During this time, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which feel under pressure in Iraq by the US and have been a specific target of sanctions in both UN resolutions, have been increasingly demoralised.
However, the arrest of the Britons on March 23 indicated a tactical shift. Two days before their capture, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s highest authority, threatened that if “illegal actions” against Iran continued, Tehran would respond in the same way.
The domestic sense of victory has been buoyed by the recent US flexibility permitting access to the five Iranian officials held by American forces in Iraq since January and the release of Jalal Sharafi, a senior diplomat kidnapped in Baghdad two months ago by men reportedly in Iraqi army uniforms. Iran suspects the kidnap was masterminded by the US.
“This belief is reinforced now that if the other side (US and Britain) create tension we have to respond by creating tension,” said a former official and a university professor. “This may be extended to the nuclear issue, while there is no sign of retreat by Iran.”
Iran has backed off from its initial demands of apology from Britain. However, talk in domestic circles is that there is a promise to release the five officials relatively soon. But Iran, Britain and US have publicly denied denied any links between the fate of the 15 and the five.
“Both sides should hopefully learn a lesson that no win-lose game is possible in Iraq or the region anymore. It’s either a win-win or a lose-lose game,” a senior reformist said, conceding that “Iran still has the first say in Iraq as far as tactical calculations are concerned.”
Analysts in Tehran agree the Iranian regime did not have any intention to escalate the dispute and had no plan to keep the detainees too long. The tough language by prime minister Tony Blair in threatening Iran with the “next phase” and getting the UN security council to issue a statement is believed to have delayed the sailors’ release.
The case of 15 naval personnel was handled by the Supreme National Security Council, the top security body which also has a prominent role in the nuclear programme, and received a rare coordination between different parts of the Iranian regime.
Insiders say president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad did not have much of a role in it, even though he got the credit for defusing the crisis after he announced the “acquittal” on behalf of the nation and a “gift” to British people on Easter and Passover.
Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, however, received scathing criticism from some quarters for releasing the 15 unconditionally.
“Are we supposed to retreat like this in the future, too?” an editorial by Ayandeh-No, a reformist paper, said.
