Is HSBC a better canary in the coalmine than other banks? And, if so, has the recent optimism in the sector been overdone?

Recently the markets have witnessed a stream of executives (and central bankers) who have suggested the worst may be over, even as they produce further hefty writedowns. On Monday HSBC went somewhat contrarian, presenting fairly solid first-quarter numbers but talking candidly about the chances of a US recession and describing the wider outlook as “unusually difficult to foresee.”