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September 14, 2011 9:34 am
Explore how the Boundary Commission’s proposals for a smaller House of Commons could affect you, and the outcome of the next election in your area.
Initial analysis by the Financial Times using the data found in this database suggests the proposed changes will hit the Liberal Democrats hardest, taking away 10 of their 43 English seats, while Labour lose 15 out of 191 and the Tories just five out of 297.
Enter your postcode into the database below to find your proposed new constituency.
Methodology
We arrived at the predicted election outcomes by distributing the votes cast in the 2010 general election among the wards that comprise each current constituency, weighting each ward’s share of the votes according to the proportion of the constituency’s electorate that it contains.
These ward-level totals were then recombined into the new constituencies proposed this week by the Boundary Commission.
This model assumes a uniform distribution of the votes across the wards that comprise each constituency. In reality, the distribution of party allegiances across wards in a constituency is likely to be far less even.
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