After six weeks of shell-shocked indignation and civil unrest, Raila Odinga, the Kenyan opposition leader, has brought his party to a critical juncture in the country’s post-election crisis.

Talks between the opposition and the government made early progress on humanitarian issues and quelling violence. But this week they hit the thorniest subject: how to defuse the dispute over a flawed election that both sides claim to have won.

Kofi Annan, the former United Nations secretary-general, mediating between Kenya’s political rivals, said on Friday he was confident of a breakthrough next week but quashed speculation that there were already the makings of a power-sharing deal between President Mwai Kibaki and the opposition.

With international pressure mounting on both sides to reach a compromise, the opposition’s chances of righting the perceived injustice of a “stolen” election have been hindered by its narrowing margin for manoeuvre. Internal differences have also prevented the emergence of a clear strategy.

Mr Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement was so sure it would win the December 27 election – a conviction fed by opinion polls and early tallies of votes cast – that it was not prepared for a battle over doctored returns.

The impression of a movement scratching around for new ideas has crystallised since mid-January, when protests against Mr Kibaki’s dubious victory were called off and violence began to be driven by deeper grievances.

Merely by threatening protests the opposition proved it could disrupt life in Nairobi’s central business district. Yet Najib Balala, a member of the ODM leadership team, says: “If we wanted power for the sake of power we would have gone for mass action in high gear. But we don’t want to damage our country like that.”

Mr Odinga’s next gambit was to put pressure on the president by calling for a boycott of companies linked to his allies. But the plan was hastily dropped when it was pointed out that one target, Equity Bank, was part-owned by a London-based private equity group.

ODM scored a parliamentary victory three weeks ago by electing one of its own to the position of speaker, but it could not capitalise because the legislature was adjourned until March. 

The opposition’s idea of what it wants from the talks appears now to have shifted.

On Thursday Mr Odinga hinted that the ODM would be prepared to relax its demand that Mr Kibaki stand down. “Initially our stand was that we won the elections, and Mr Kibaki lost the elections, he should resign, and we should be sworn in, but we have said that we are not static on that point,” he said.

On Friday, one ODM negotiator said an agreement had been reached in principle to share power. However, should the party agree to a junior role in government it would alienate many supporters. The most obvious formula would be for Mr Odinga to become executive prime minister but there are doubts over how that would function, given the deep mistrust with the president.

One rumour circulating this week – stoked by those who see both leaders as part of the problem – was that Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga would be asked to step aside so that the speaker could head an interim government that would prepare a new ­election.

But Kenyans worry an election would cause fresh ethnic violence. The likely victor would also be uncertain because the strife and political realignments of the past six weeks would give a fresh poll a new dynamic.

In the long term the ODM wants to see perceived injustices over the distribution of land, power and wealth addressed. But that would require changes to the Kenyan constitution which could take at least a year.

Mr Balala, who is viewed as a hardliner, says: “We know exactly what we want. We want to remove Kibaki and replace him with Raila. But we don’t know how best to get it.”

The opposition has invested most of its hope in outside intervention.

The US and the European Union have said they cannot continue “business as usual” with Kenya and have stepped up pressure on both sides by threatening, and in the case of the US and Canada initiating, visa restrictions against politicians stoking violence.

Like the opposition, analysts say the government is in uncharted territory. It says it is open to power-sharing but its actions suggest a strategy of digging in.

Already Mr Kibaki has frittered away much of the diplomatic goodwill left to him by refusing to acknowledge doubts about the election’s validity, announcing half his cabinet before talks began, and rejecting Mr Annan’s choice of Cyril Ramaphosa, a South African veteran of the talks that ended apartheid, as chief mediator.

Even if the ODM lacks a strategy, Mr Balala says, it can succeed by allowing the government to alienate itself. “Everything we pres­ent as a reasonable way of ending this issue they reject,” he says. “We are giving them the rope to hang themselves.”