Charting China’s leading indicators

Crafting a reliable leading indicator is a tricky business in the world’s most mature economies, with analysts using a cocktail of different data points to try to get ahead of the curve in forecasting growth. In a developing nation, especially one that is growing and changing as quickly as China, the task is much harder because there are few consistent reference points to compare.

Yet in recent years, several leading indicators for China have garnered attention after doing a good job of predicting the economy’s slowdown at the end of 2008 and its subsequent recovery.

Three of the most respected leading indicators – one published by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a second by China’s national statistics bureau (NBS) and a third being the official purchasing managers’ index – have all trended down since early 2010, just like the economy itself.

But the declines have been much more gradual than their steep falls in 2008 and their rate of deceleration has mostly slowed in recent months, hinting at a stabilisation in the Chinese economy.

This interactive graphic explores these three indicators in relation to GDP growth.