Nicolas Sarkozy is in political trouble. Having floated through the second half of 2007 on a rose-tinged cloud of expectation, the French president has suddenly drifted into a thunderous storm. His approval ratings have plummeted. His political party, the UMP, fears a battering in next month’s municipal elections. His government is in a state of incipient civil war.

Mr Sarkozy has been attempting to dismiss this storm as freak weather, the kind of turbulence that buffets every president, especially one who has championed such ambitious proposals for change. But some fear France is experiencing far more serious political climate change that could fatally disrupt Mr Sarkozy’s attempts at reform.