Now the Serbian presidential election is over, the unilateral independence of Kosovo is likely to be declared within a matter of weeks. It may be a tiny, remote, poor and mountainous land, but the consequences of the move will spread far beyond its Balkan borders.

Although the great majority of Serbs remain strenuously opposed, Kosovo’s independence will swiftly be recognised by the US, followed by leading members of the European Union, including the UK, France and Germany. It will be a de facto recognition, not a de jure one. Russia is blocking any United Nations resolution, both out of loyalty to Serbia and from a more fundamental objection to the principle of self-determination.