Financial Times FT.com

Housebuilders show uncertainty

By Tom Griggs

Published: January 12 2008 02:00 | Last updated: January 12 2008 02:00

Bovis Homes and Bellway became the latest housebuilders to confirm the uncertainty faced by the industry at the start of 2008, though the whole sector rose about 10 per cent on Friday recovering some of the sharp losses since the start of the week.

Both companies were careful to point out that the outlook for the market was unclear ahead of the all-important spring selling season, following the ramifications of the credit squeeze and the problems at embattled banking group Northern Rock.

Malcolm Harris, chief executive of Bovis, pointed to the “well publicised supply-and-demand dynamic in the UK housing market” and the “support and encouragement” from the government but pinned his hopes on further interest rate cuts.

“At the moment, we anticipate further interest rate reductions from the Bank of England,” he said.

“If that happens the spring selling season should pick up, but if it doesn’t the market will be slower.”

Bovis said legal completions fell by 193 homes to 2,930 during the year and that reservations fell 19 per cent to 816.

In spite of the reduced sales, margins remained steady compared with the first half of the year.

The group said it was confident of keeping its margins broadly in line with those in 2006 and achieving pre-tax profits in line with analysts’ forecasts of about £127m.

Bellway, which held its annual meeting on Friday, pointed out that it had already secured 70 per cent of its revised target for its financial year to the end of June, while acknowledging the poor sentiment in the housing market.

It said it had positioned itself sensibly to take advantage of any improvements.

Bank of America confirmed on Friday it would pay about $4bn (£2bn) for Countrywide Financial, the largest mortgage lender in the US, and said it expected to make $670m in after-tax cost savings from the deal.

Some industry watchers said the acquisition provided a catalyst for the share price rise at the British housebuilding groups.

Kevin Cammack, an analyst at Kaupthing, attributed the partial recovery to the lack of bad news, in spite of the uncertain outlook.

“The housebuilding sector has been slaughtered this week.

“I think investors have taken stock and realised that no one has said things are falling off a cliff or that land values are falling.”

From the most recent valuations provided by the companies, Bellway is trading at an 18 per cent discount to the value of its assets, while Bovis is trading slightly below net asset value.

Bovis Homes shares rose 55p to 545p on Friday, giving the group a market valuation of £658m; Bellway’s market value advanced to £836m as its shares jumped 79½p to 728½p.

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