Cheer up, it may never happen. The market view of the risk of a recession in the US has fallen sharply in the past two months.

According to prices of a futures contract run by the Intrade prediction market, the chances of a US recession this year are now about 30 per cent. Trading in this contract so far this year looks very much like the inverse of the world stock market. When the implied recession risk shot up to 73 per cent in early January after a series of poor economic data, equities tanked.