Ramadi’s fall casts doubt on al-Abadi’s control of Iraq war

The loss of the strategically important city of Ramadi has cast further doubt on Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi’s efforts to regain control of a war that is fragmenting the country.

For months, Mr Abadi has sought to strengthen his position against the rising authority of the Shia militias some of them supported by — or loyal to — Iran as those forces played a key role in the campaign to retake the city of Tikrit.

But the fall of Ramadi to the forces of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) on Sunday has forced Mr Abadi to lean on the Shia militia and volunteer forces he had until recently hoped to sideline.

Mr Abadi on Monday met with their leaders to discuss what state television described as the “redefinition of the defence lines” in Anbar.

“The fall of Ramadi is more of a commentary on the Iraqi government than on the strength of Isis. [The US] has a partner in Iraq that is very weak,” says Kirk Sowell, a political risk analyst who publishes Inside Iraqi Politics, a newsletter.

Surrounded by Isis and other insurgent groups, Ramadi had fought off jihadi advances for nearly 18 months. But by all accounts Iraqi troops there performed poorly when Isis launched its offensive this weekend. Sunni tribal leaders have complained publicly about the way Iraqi troops’ withdrew from the city without putting up a serious fight — reviving memories of the army’s flight from Mosul last June.

The tribes also say they lack the heavy weaponry to take on Isis — who are armed with millions of dollars worth of US equipment they looted when they over-ran northwestern Iraq last summer.

For now, Baghdad, as well as Iraq’s Shia shrine cities to the south, such as Karbala, and the Kurdish controlled cities in the north, are well defended and out of Isis’s reach.

Podcast

Ramadi residents trapped after Iraqi city falls into Isis hands

Erika Soloman has been speaking to residents of the Iraqi city of Ramadi about the conditions they face since city fell into the hands of fighters from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant on Sunday. She speaks to Fiona Symon about their predicament.

The main strategic consequence of Ramadi’s fall will be to push back the timeframe for retaking Mosul, Iraq’s second city. But the battle for control of Ramadi also offers a sign of what a future Iraqi state might look like.

The US-led coalition against Isis, which has been providing air support and training to Iraq’s army, is wary of letting the militias enter the largely Sunni Anbar province. There are fears sectarian clashes could worsen: Sunnis accuse the militias of widespread looting and summary killings, and warn that the militias could push locals into Isis’s sphere.

“Now we have only two choices: the Shia militias or Isis,” says Jaber Jaberi, a Sunni parliamentarian from Ramadi. “The role of the government is basically absent. We have no army to fight for us.”

Hours after Iraqi troops withdrew or perished in Ramadi, a Shia militia and volunteer force of thousands began to mobilise to take on Isis in Anbar. At the same time, Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan, Iran’s defence minister and a veteran of the country’s Revolutionary Guard, arrived in Baghdad to meet officials including the foreign and interior ministers.

“Whatever is happening in Iraq today has strategic consequences for the region and the world,” Brig Gen Dehghan said, underscoring Iran’s concern at the presence of Isis on its western border.

The way the Iraqi army fled in the face of the Isis onslaught has also revived questions about the effectiveness of US training of Iraqi forces.

“The training mission is clearly inadequate,” says Mr Sowell, noting that there were only about 300 US trainers in Anbar.

“Isis’ military forces are not that big, they mostly make use of suicide bombs and a small core of elite fighters. If the Iraqis had a real division there, a fully armed and manned division, this would be more than enough.”

Iraq security experts say the militia-led counter-offensive against Isis should begin in a week and that leaders of various armed groups were huddling to mobilise plans. In addition, Iraqi security forces have stepped up air strikes on Isis positions in Anbar.

But beyond sectarian concerns, analysts remain sceptical that the Shia militia are the answer for restoring Anbar to state control.

“The Shia militias were already present in eastern Anbar,” says Aymenn al-Tamimi, a fellow at Middle East Forum, a US think-tank. “They could possibly retake Ramadi, but the situation will revert to the status quo of several areas continuously changing hands . . . That is not a solution.”