If any Bulgarian leader thinks he can change the face of the country’s politics, it is Boyko Borissov, the charismatic mayor of Sofia.
The former karate champion and ex-police general is the informal leader of Gerb – Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria – a new centre-right party committed to fighting crime and corruption.
Built largely around the 49-year-old Mr Borissov’s formidable personality, Gerb leads the ruling Socialist party (BSP) in the opinion polls and is aiming to win next year’s parliamentary elections. “If elections were held today it would be possible for Gerb to form a government with me at the top of the list,” says the muscular Mr Borissov in an interview in his mayoral office.
But the Socialist party – the ex-Communist party with long experience of politics – is far from giving up power, despite a string of corruption-linked scandals that have hit its popularity.
Sergei Stanishev, the prime minister, has survived five no-confidence votes, but remains determined to lead the BSP into the elections – and party officials say they will stand by him.
The BSP will be hoping that Mr Borissov will burn himself out before the polls. Officials know that popular one-man parties have failed to sustain themselves previously in Bulgaria, notably the grouping headed by Simeon Saxe-Coburg, the former king who returned from exile and became prime minister in 2001 only to see his popularity evaporate.
Mr Borissov brushes aside comparisons with King Simeon, saying that he is “an insider” who has already spent years in public life. He says: “Simeon failed because he came from outside. He promised things would improve and they did not. I am an insider ... I am satisfying the public and gaining support through my work. I have never made a single promise except to work, work and, again, work. This is what the public sees.”
Mr Borissov served as a bodyguard to both Todor Zhivkov, the last Communist leader, and, later, to King Simeon. He established one of Bulgaria’s most successful security companies and became independently wealthy – making him less vulnerable to accusations of corruption.
In 2001, he was appointed secretary general of the interior ministry in King Simeon’s government with the rank of colonel, later rising to lieutenant general. He stayed in office after the king’s defeat by a Socialist-led coalition in the 2005 elections and then ran for mayor, an election he won with an unprecedented 68 per cent of the vote. In 2006, he launched Gerb, and last year secured re-election as Sofia’s mayor. Now his eyes are set on next year’s parliamentary elections. Recent opinion polls give Gerb about 27 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the Socialists on 16 per cent. Third is the MRF – the ethnic Turkish party – on 8 per cent, and fourth is the far-right nationalist Ataka on 7 per cent. Gerb’s support is concentrated among younger, educated Bulgarians, while the Socialists command votes from older, poorer people.
The Socialists are well aware of the Gerb threat and the fact that pressure to fight crime and corruption comes not only from Brussels but from an angry public. However, their ability to make political capital out of their reforms has been hindered by scandals. Last year, Rumen Ovcharov, the economy minister, resigned after he was accused of interfering in a corruption investigation and, this year, Rumen Petkov, the interior minister, quit when it was revealed that two senior officials had leaked information to criminals and that he himself had held meetings with alleged crime bosses. He has denied wrongdoing.
Mr Petkov, who, like Mr Ovcharov, remains a powerful BSP figure, says there is still time for the party to recover. “First of all, we have a year to elections. Borissov’s party is a new party and now exerts power at a local level. This is very difficult, so it may make mistakes. I don’t think today we can really predict what can happen next year.”
He says the party can be proud of its reforms and economic record, especially cutting unemployment. He dismisses suggestions that the BSP might dump Mr Stanishev and could be damaged by tensions between him and Mr Ovcharov: “We do have our differences on some issues but this does not mean conflict. We are not here to like each other but to work together.”
Much will depend on minor parties. The governing coalition of Socialists, the ethnic Turkish MRF, and the centrist National Movement for Stability and Progress (NMSP), has been weakened by the defection of 17 NMSP members to the opposition. In the last no-confidence vote, after Mr Petkov’s resignation, the 35 remaining NMSP members abstained, leaving the government to scrape by with just 117 votes in the 240-seat chamber. The NMSP does not want early elections any more than the Socialists, for fear of handing victory to Mr Borissov. But its behaviour has damaged the coalition.
As so often in Bulgarian politics, the MRF could hold the balance of power, even after a Gerb victory. The party, which has been in ruling coalitions for all but six years since 1989, is regularly accused of selling its services to the highest bidder, encouraging corruption. Mr Borissov does not want the MRF in any Gerb-led administration, saying “they have to be put into opposition”. But other political leaders have expressed similar reservations only to find that parliamentary mathematics forces compromises.
Meanwhile, neither the Gerb nor the BSP can afford to underestimate the threat from Ataka, which brings anti-Turkish sentiments into the open. The party’s populist messages have recently been drowned out by Mr Borissov’s well-publicised successes, but it remains a potent force.
