Pre-election numbers carry extra spice

The US monthly non-farm payrolls data are always eagerly anticipated by the market. Friday’s numbers carry extra spice, coming as they do just days before next week’s US election.

How should traders prepare? The answer depends on the weight they expect the market to attach to the report’s possible economic or political impact.

Now that the US Federal Reserve has made it pretty clear that it is prepared to over-egg the quantitative easing pudding in order to ensure that economic growth becomes robust, it means there is less chance of strong job creation delivering a “sell the good news” reaction in stocks.

Thus, in economic terms, and in terms of raising hopes about the prospects for corporate earnings, equities should receive positively a net NFP gain above the 125,000 forecast for October.

But if politics are the focus, then such an outcome – particularly if the rate of unemployment falls below last month’s 7.8 per cent – may be seen tipping the very close poll marginally in Mr Obama’s favour.

Under this scenario the good news could be seen negatively by a stock market that prefers a Romney win.

jamie.chisholm@ft.com